Perform Risk Analysis 

Purpose:

To assess the likelihood, impact, urgency, and overall effect of risks, enabling the project team to focus on what matters most.

• Which risks are most critical?

• What is their potential impact on project objectives?

• How should we prioritize response actions?
  
  

Key Inputs

• Risk Register (identified risks)

• Risk Management Plan

• Project Documents:

  • 1. 1. Assumptions log

       2. Basis of estimates

       3. Project schedule and cost estimates
          
          

• Enterprise Environmental Factors (EEF)

• Organizational Process Assets (OPA)

Components of Risk Analysis

1. Qualitative Risk Analysis - A relative assessment of risks based on probability and impact.

Techniques:

• Probability–Impact Matrix

• Risk categorization

• Risk urgency assessment

• Expert judgment
  
  

Output:

• Prioritized list of risks (High / Medium / Low)
  
  

2. Quantitative Risk Analysis - A numerical analysis of risk impact on project objectives (cost, schedule).

Techniques:

• Monte Carlo Simulation

• Decision Tree Analysis

• Sensitivity Analysis (tornado diagrams)

• Expected Monetary Value (EMV)

• Risk probability and impact assessment

• Simulations

Output:

• Probability of meeting deadlines

• Cost/schedule contingency estimates

• Confidence levels (e.g., P80, P90)

Tools & Techniques (Integrated View)

Data Analysis

• Probability and impact assessment

• EMV analysis

• Simulation models

Interpersonal & Team Skills

• Expert judgment

• Facilitation

Representation Techniques

• Probability–impact matrix

• Tornado diagrams

• Cumulative probability curves

Key Outputs

1. Updated Risk Register

• Probability and impact ratings

• Risk scores

• Priority ranking

• Identified “top risks”

2. Risk Report

• Overall project risk exposure

• Key drivers of risk

• Recommended focus areas

3. Basis of Analysis

• Assumptions used

• Methods applied

• Confidence level of results

Summary

The Perform Risk Analysis process transforms a list of identified risks into actionable intelligence. By combining qualitative prioritization and quantitative evaluation, it enables project teams to focus on high-impact uncertainties, optimize decisions, and improve overall project success.